What is single-deal exposure?

Single-deal exposure is the percentage of a quarter's number carried by your largest one to three deals. It is the fastest read on how fragile a forecast is, and it is almost never on the dashboard. A quarter can show healthy coverage and still rest on a single signature. Exposure is the number that tells you which one you are looking at.

How to calculate single-deal exposure

Add the value of your largest one to three deals in the commit, then divide by the total number you need for the quarter. If your top deal is $1.2M against a $3M quarter, your top-deal exposure is forty percent. Run it two ways, for the single largest deal and for the top three, so you can see both the sharpest point of failure and the broader concentration.

Why single-deal exposure matters

Coverage can look healthy while a quarter balances on one point of failure. Exposure is what tells you whether the number is diversified or resting on a single deal. It is the difference between a forecast that survives a lost deal and one that collapses with it, and it is the concentration risk a coverage ratio hides completely.

This is not just theory. In three decades of carrying and leading a number, I have seen that forty percent line hold: when a single deal carries more than forty percent of the quarter, it fails to close about four out of five times, and takes the number down with it. The largest deal is usually the hardest to close and the easiest to derail, because the cost of change is highest exactly where the deal is biggest.

What the thresholds mean

These bands come from patterns across many books of business. Treat them as a fragility read, not a hard rule.

Above forty percent: fragile. One deal carries too much of the quarter. A slip or loss on it takes the number with it, regardless of how strong coverage looks.
Twenty to forty percent: watch. Manageable, but worth diversifying before the concentration hardens in the final weeks.
Below twenty percent: architecture. The number rests on many deals, so no single loss breaks the quarter.

How to reduce single-deal exposure

Source enough net-new pipeline that the number does not depend on one deal, and run a survivability check each quarter by stripping your largest deal from commit to see what is left. Concentration is easiest to fix months before the quarter, not in its final weeks, which is why exposure belongs in your pipeline review long before it becomes a forecast problem.

Above forty percent, the number is fragile regardless of coverage. Below twenty percent, you have architecture.

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Single-deal exposure is one of three numbers that survive scrutiny where coverage does not. The full case is in Pipeline coverage is a lie, and the stress test that uses it is in Forecast survivability.

Common questions

The share of a quarter's number carried by your top one to three deals. It measures how much of the forecast rests on a small number of opportunities.

What is a safe level of single-deal exposure?

Above forty percent the quarter is fragile regardless of coverage. Below twenty percent you have real architecture. Between the two is manageable but worth diversifying.

What happens when one deal carries most of the quarter?

It usually does not end well. In practice, when a single deal carries more than forty percent of the quarter, it fails to close about four out of five times, and takes the number down with it. The biggest deal is typically the hardest to close and the easiest to derail, which is why forty percent is the fragility line.

How do you calculate single-deal exposure?

Divide the combined value of your largest one to three deals in commit by the total number you need for the quarter. A $1.2M top deal against a $3M quarter is forty percent top-deal exposure.

How is single-deal exposure different from pipeline coverage?

Coverage measures the size of your pipeline against the number. Exposure measures how concentrated that number is in a few deals. A quarter can have healthy coverage and dangerous exposure at the same time.